At the beginning of 2017, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimated the production (sales) of new energy vehicles in 2017 at 700000, and by the end of the year it was 820000, with an actual completion rate of 117. The author initially predicted 850000 vehicles, with an actual completion rate of 96.4.

　　There are several difficulties in 1. China's automobile statistical forecast.

The caliber of China's automobile industry statistics is not uniform, mainly the caliber of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, as well as the caliber of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's data issued according to the certificate, the caliber of the Ministry of Public Security's licensing data, and the caliber of private research institutions themselves, which one is correct? Because each caliber of the statistics has its own purpose and use.

The statistical caliber of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers is more official, such as the relative authority of total production and sales, and its subdivision is of little significance to different departments, for example, what is the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles? How much is the bus? It is necessary to refer to other caliber statistics; if you want to give a more reasonable error forecast, you must make a certain error estimate. Statistics have errors, and predictions are even more so. If the error is less than 5%, the theory is still acceptable.

The scientific forecast value has a guiding significance for the enterprise management.

　　Main Composition of New Energy Vehicles in China in 2.

According to the current definition of new energy vehicles, the main components are basically divided into: passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Passenger cars are subdivided by grade (A, B, C, D), and commercial vehicles are subdivided by purpose. Based on the current technical level of new energy in China, new energy buses (models over 6 meters) focus on buses, while new energy trucks are basically in the field of urban distribution vehicles.

The idea of predicting the size of new energy vehicles in the new year is to simplify the model and add error estimation analysis.

The main intention of the above processing is that when there is no way to get high-precision statistical data, there is a consensus that big data is meaningless to individuals, and after theoretical model processing, the conclusions based on the overall big data prediction are more scientific and true. The above 850000 predicted value is more scientific than 700000, which is an objective example.

　　What is the production (sales) of new energy vehicles in 3. in 2018?

The basic growth rate in 2017 is 64% (500000 in 2016 and 82 in 2017). If 64% is maintained in 2018, the minimum will be above 1.344 million. What is the key reason to keep 64%?

① A lot of work has been done to pave the way for the 2018 policy level in 2017, and there will be no major fluctuations in the first half of the year.

② In 2018, passenger car manufacturers have been actively digesting the "double points" policy. The market pattern with A00-class cars as the main force will undergo major changes. In 2018, new energy passenger cars will take A- class cars as the main force, and the newly added cars will basically be A- class cars. In 2018, B- class new energy vehicles will not become the main models.

The charging mode of passenger cars, portable DC fast mode will have a fast development. Public charging pile construction speed will not keep up with the expansion of the new energy vehicle passenger car market, manufacturers equipped with DC fast is the basic force.

④ New energy buses are mainly pure electric buses, which are basically the same as in 2017. The development of rail transit in first-tier cities is relatively fast, and the sharing rate of 10 and 12-meter buses has dropped significantly. Pure electric bus charging mode is basically "slow charge, fast fill".

⑤ The current technical indicators of pure electric buses still cannot meet the requirements of long-distance passenger transport. The scale of pure electric buses will increase greatly in 2018, and the technical indicators of pure electric commuter buses can basically meet the requirements. It is expected to be the growth point of buses in 2018.

The urban distribution of electric vehicles has a high growth. The main driving force is the "green distribution demonstration project" promoted by the Ministry of Transport, which requires the provision of new energy trucks, and a province requires two demonstration zones. The main growth vehicle is the 4.2-ton van electric vehicle, and the van electric vehicle is basically the same as in 17 years.

　　4. trend of China's auto market is basically fixed

The trend of the new energy market is basically in line with the overall trend of China. The first half of the year is the peak season. In 2019, when subsidies are withdrawn, manufacturers hope to sell their cars on December 31. The basic idea of the manufacturer is to set production by sales. In 2018, the macro level is relatively stable, but the competition among manufacturers will be extremely fierce.

In a word, the expansion of China's new energy vehicle market in 2018 is a high probability event. More optimistic estimates of more than 1.5 million vehicles. There will be more than 1.1 million passenger cars, no less than 300000 professional cars, and buses will basically remain at 100000. Other specialty car and bus markets basically grew in 2H20. The growth of the passenger car market is estimated after 5.1 (including 5.1).